Counting is continuing for the Mayor and Councillor positions. COVID-19 has meant a much higher proportion of postal votes than usual. The final date for postal votes is 5 pm on Tuesday, 7 April.
The latest update of counting, at the time of writing, is 4:42pm April 6 2020. The result may be known on Wednesday 9 April.
With 74% of the vote is counted, the situation for Mayor is:
| RICHARDSON, Claire | 31,523 | 40.7% |
| CURTIN, David Allan | 11,290 | 14.6% |
| WILLIAMS, Karen | 34,723 | 44.8% |
The contest is between Richardson and Williams and it is extremely unlikely that either will get to 50% on first preferences by the end of the count. This means that Curtin’s preferences will be distributed between Richardson and Williams.
The great unknown is how many of the those who voted 1 for Curtin actually gave a second preference. Presuming that a vote for Curtin was also a vote against Williams, Richardson is in with a chance if nearly all of the Curtin voters allocated preferences –
On the other hand, Williams chances of winning increase the lower the proportion of Curtin voters who did allocate a preference.
At this stage, the odds favour Williams.
Second preferences may decide the outcome
The voting system for Local Government is optional preferential. Votes can choose whether or not to allocate preferences. In comparison, the voting system for Federal and State elections is compulsory preferential where votes are invalid unless all candidates are given a preference.
If neither Richardson or Williams gets more than 50% of the valid first preference votes when all the votes are counted, Curtin preferences will be distributed. This means that the three candidate race becomes a two candidate race between Richardson and Williams. The votes which were 1 for Curtin are added to the respective first preference totals of Richardson and Williams according to which of them was put number 2.
When preferences are distributed the winner will be the candidate who gets 50% plus one of the total of first preferences and second preferences. A vote for Curtin which does not allocate a preference is excluded from the second round count.
In an optional preferential system, there are two separate factors
- What proportion of those who voted for Curtin voters allocated a preference
- What is the distribution of preferences (i.e. what proportion of those who voted for Curtin have voted 2 Richardson and what proportion have voted 2 Williams).
Based on the current distribution of first preferences, if all of those who voted 1 for Curtin gave a preference, then Williams requires 36% of those preferences and Richardson requires 64% of the preferences to win the election.
As the proportion of Curtin voters who allocated preferences falls, Wiiliams requires a lower proportion of the preferences actually cast and Richardson a larger proportion. The arithmetic is quite complex but the effect is shown in the following table.
| Proportion of Curtin voters giving a preference | Proportion of preferences required to get majority | |
| Williams | Richardson | |
| 100% | 36% | 64% |
| 75% | 31% | 69% |
| 50% | 22% | 78% |
Critically, Richardson cannot win (on current distributions) if less than 29% of Curtin voters gave a preference.
Some issues
On current figures almost 54% of first preferences are for a candidate other than the current Mayor. With a compulsory preferential system, such as the state and federal elections, it is very possible that the current mayor would not have been re-elected. The State Government proposed to standardise Local Government election system with State and Federal ones but dropped this, in part because of pressure within the ALP.
Also If Mayor Williams is re-elected some explanation could be required from the supporters of David Curtin and those who may have encouraged his candidacy.
The writer’s understanding is that he did not issue a how to vote card allocating preferences. It is unclear whether this was about policy issues or simply a failure to understand the complexities of optional preferential voting.
Howard Guille
Howard Guille is a resident of Mooloomba who has written extensively on politics and economics including two monographs for the T.J. Ryan Foundation on the performance of the current State Government.
Information about the three candidates for mayor was presented by Redlands2030 in:
Candidates for election as Redlands Mayor
Redlands2030 – 6 April 2020
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5 Comments
The ECQ staff are reported to have told quite a few…maybe many people …to just vote 1. A couple of colleagues even said they were dissuaded from giving preferences because the advice from the ECQ staff was so adamant. If the ECQ interferred with the election to that extent the election result is fraught. At the very least there should be an inquiry into the election process and the interference of ECQ in the optional preferential voting system that is the law.
Sadly more than a couple of candidates, including some sitting Councillors had the same approach…their motives were at least understandable even if self serving.
In my view, candidates who can afford the most images of themselves on signs placed in various sites by main roads on fences, green backdrops, as on driving to Victoria Point from Windemere Rd Alex Hills passing by at least 1/2 doz images of Alex Hills candidate Ms McKenzie, then further along Redland Bay Rd to Victoria Pt … one of mayoral candidate Claire4Mayor which surprises me that so many Redlanders voted for her as friend Fay, Birkdale, told of having heard a woman was running against Williams, a familiar name, but found nothing in mail box. Many residents with no interest in local politics, vote for a familiar name, Williams. One local asked if I saw mayor’s bus painted white with entire side enveloped with impressive ‘Williams Will’ image + other messages…an effective way of winning votes in my opinion. I noticed her bus speeding along Finucane Rd Capalaba at the last local election and was impressed with the image. Likewise, Cr Peter Mitchell in Cleveland. Prior to election day drove through en route to Vicky Pt and to my amazement passed by a towering image of Mr Mitchell with words ‘stick with Mitch’ Blind Freddy could see at eye level….the one and only visible sign in Cleveland. Candidate for Capalaba Adelia Berridge had many signs stolen…plus finding election material candidates have in trays outside polling booths in Cleveland buried by mean spirited person/s with someone else’s material thereby denying her a chance to win votes. Informed… candidate in Wellington Point had some sixteen trailers to attract attention of the voting public. The Qld Electoral Commission needs to exercise some control over the amount of signs allowed and how elections are conducted to avoid bad behaviour and consider impact of signage overkill on increasingly congested Redland roads. It should be enough that each candidate displays his/her sign outside each designated voting site throughout the City alongside table with trays of election material.
Although we don’t have the final numbers yet, a rough calculation suggests that there has been a significant swing against Williams, compared to the previous election, of around 8%-10%.
That’s a pretty solid swing, but I wonder (assuming she is re-elected) if she will take any notice of it.
Clearly a vote for curtin( complete unknown) IS a vote against reigning mayor!!! If I were scrutineering , this would be a huge consideration , I believe the voters intention is clear!!! People are sick and distraught with current mayor’s destruction of our beautiful part of the world!!
PS where is “redlands coast” did I miss a referendum on name change,? It is a very common uninspired title!!
Interesting, well explained article. The author, Howard Guille, clearly understood the importance of voters allocating preferences in the contest for Redlands Mayor. As he is a long term Labor Party identity, I wonder whether, before the election, he discussed (or sought to discuss) the importance of voters allocating (or not allocating) preferences with David Curtin? Curtin used his connection to the Labor Party to advance his cause so it would make sense for someone like Howard Guille to have spoken to him – or attempted to. If David Curtin declined to have such a discussion, that would be worth knowing.