Redlands area election results analysed

State MPs for the Redlands area

State MPs for the Redlands area (click to enlarge)

Voters in the Redlands area send three representatives to the Queensland Parliament, from the electorates of Capalaba, Cleveland and Redlands.

At the election held on 31 January 2015 the following candidates were elected:

  • Don Brown (Labor) representing Capalaba with a margin of 7.06%
  • Mark Robinson (LNP) representing Cleveland with a margin of 5.45%
  • Matt McEachan (LNP) representing Redlands with a margin of 2.23%

These margins are based on the 2 party preferred (2PP) votes after the final distribution of preferences.

We know who won each seat and by how much. But what if we looked at the overall Redlands area results?

It was close

At the 2012 state election, for the three Redlands area seats aggregated the LNP won the  2PP vote by 64% to Labor’s 36%.

Three years later the LNP was just a nose in front with 50.33% of the 2PP vote and Labor got 49.67%. This was a 14.1% swing from the LNP to Labor.

Voting 2PP pie charts 2012 2015

Implications

In 2016 Redlands area voters will have local government elections in March and probably a Federal election later in the year. The Federal seat of Bowman covers much the same area as the three State seats in the Redlands.

The swing at the 2015 state election should be of interest to candidates in 2016. While the issues may be different, we can note that:

  • Voters are quite happy to swing if they are not happy with the way their governments are performing.
  • Currently, the electorate is evenly poised between the LNP and Labor. This is good news for electors because marginal electorates get more attention from the major political parties than safe seats.

Other results

Across the Redlands area, the Greens increased their primary vote from 8.38% in 2012 to 10.64% in 2015.

Primary votes for other minor party and independent candidates across the Redlands area increased slightly from 3.95% in 2012 to 4.79% in 2015.

The Redlands area has more voters

The number of enrolled voters provides some clues to changing demographics. Population growth and a changing age distribution influence the number of eligible voters.

At the 2015 election 101,741 people were enrolled to vote in a Redlands area electorate. This was 7,155 or 7.6% more than the number enrolled for the election in 2012. Average annual growth in the number of enrolled voters from 2012 to 2015 is 1.84%.

 15% of voters do not choose our members of parliament

Queensland’s optional preferential voting system allows voters to vote just for a single candidate or to vote for multiple candidates in order of preference. When voters do not indicate a preference, their votes may be exhausted which means that these electors do not contribute to the final choice of candidates when preferences are fully allocated on a two party preferred basis. People who do not vote, or who do not complete their ballot paper properly, also do not contribute to choosing our parliamentarians.

At the 2015 state election, 15% of enrolled voters did not cast a vote that was counted during the final distribution of preferences. This was very similar to the number of “non-contributing” voters in 2012.

Voting behavior in the Redlands area

Enrolled voters and their contribution to the 2 party preferred (2PP) vote

Further reading

For a discussion about the overall results of the Queensland 2015 Election read:

Final Queensland Election Results, Preferences and a New Pendulum

by ABC election analyst Anthony Green.

 

By Redlands2030 – 28 February 2015

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3 thoughts on “Redlands area election results analysed

  1. Deb Kellie’s comment reminds me that it was her party when in government, that prevented the residents of Carbrook and part of Cornubia, which are geographically and politically part of the Redlands, from their collective aspirations (as evinced from a newspaper survey) of inclusion in the shire when the council amalgamation took place. As far as i am aware no satisfactory explanation was ever given by the then Beattie government.

  2. The results analysed are possibly even closer, given that the state electorate of “Redlands” includes Carbrook & part of Cornubia (which are in the Logan City Council & Forde Federal electorate catchment)

  3. If you treat the electorate with contempt and arrogance, they will, in the end see through you and no amount of money spent on spin will save you.